Guide

The economic calendar: reading the announcements that move currencies

Economic figures (inflation, jobs, growth, interest rate decisions) do not come out at random: they are released on a date and at a time known weeks in advance. The economic calendar brings them together. This guide explains how to read it, which announcements matter for the strategy's currencies, and why it informs without ever saying which way the market will go. To understand why these figures move currencies, see first our guide Why currencies move.

Reading a line of the calendar

Each announcement fits on one line, almost always with the same columns:

Fictional example.
Time	Currency	Announcement	Impact	Forecast	Previous	Actual
13:30 UTC	CAD	Unemployment rate	★★★	6.8%	6.9%	7.1%

The time is the release time, in the time zone chosen on the calendar website.
The currency is that of the country publishing the figure.
The impact shows how much the announcement usually moves the market: high, medium or low. Depending on the website, it is shown as stars, bulls or colours (red, orange, yellow).
The forecast is the average figure expected by the economists surveyed before the release (the “consensus”).
The previous is the figure from the last release. It is sometimes revised when the new figure comes out.
The actual appears at the scheduled time, when the figure is released.

In the example, Canadian unemployment comes out at 7.1% while the market expected 6.8%: that is a surprise, pointing to a weaker economy than expected.

What moves the price: the surprise

The market has already priced in the forecast before the release. What moves it is the gap between the actual figure and the forecast:

Actual close to the forecast: often little movement, even for a ★★★ announcement.
Actual very different: a sharp move within seconds, sometimes of several tens of pips.
Previous heavily revised: it can matter as much as the new figure.

And the reaction is not always the one you would expect. A “good” figure that is less good than forecast can push the currency down; a first move can reverse a few minutes later, once the market reads the details. That is why a calendar gives no signal: it says when the market may move, never in which direction.

The announcements that matter for the AUD, NZD and CAD

The strategy trades AUDCAD and NZDCAD. The most closely watched announcements for these currencies are:

The most closely watched announcements for the strategy's currencies and the US dollar.
Currency	Central bank	Other key announcements
AUD (Australia)	Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)	Employment, inflation (monthly and quarterly)
NZD (New Zealand)	Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)	Inflation (quarterly), employment (quarterly), growth
CAD (Canada)	Bank of Canada (BoC)	Employment (monthly), inflation, retail sales
USD (United States)	Federal Reserve (Fed)	Employment (NFP), inflation, growth

The US dollar is in neither pair, but its major announcements move the whole currency market. China also matters for the AUD and NZD: it is a major customer of Australia and New Zealand.

Central bank rate decisions are the heaviest announcements. The decision itself is often expected; it is the statement, and the press conference that follows, that say whether further cuts or hikes are likely.

What happens at release time

Around a major announcement, the market behaves differently for a few minutes:

The spread widens: the gap between buying and selling prices can be several times larger than usual.
Orders can be filled at a worse price than expected, because the price jumps from one level to another.
At Vantage, leverage is capped at 1:200 for positions opened from 15 minutes before to 5 minutes after major announcements, which ties up more margin (see Dynamic leverage).

These effects are temporary. They partly explain why a copied position can be opened or closed at a slightly different price from the strategy's (see Why your results differ).

Two timing traps

Daylight saving time. Europe and North America do not change their clocks on the same day: for a few weeks a year, in March and in late October or early November, a US or Canadian announcement usually at 14:30 Paris time comes out at 13:30.
Public holidays. A public holiday in one country (Thanksgiving in the US, Australian or Canadian holidays) empties part of the market: less trading, sometimes jerkier moves. Calendars flag them.

What a calendar does not tell you

It does not say which way the market will go.
It does not list everything: an unexpected statement by a politician or a geopolitical event can move currencies more than a ★★★ announcement.
It does not replace a method: reacting in the heat of the moment to an announcement, by closing or opening positions by hand, is one of the surest ways to pay a widened spread at the worst time.

And at PlanetFinance?

The week's calendar is published every Sunday at 19:00 Paris time in the PlanetFinance Telegram groups (English group, French group): the medium- and high-impact announcements for the USD, CAD, AUD and NZD. An alert is also sent 20 minutes before each ★★★ announcement. These messages inform; they give no signals.

For a copier, there is nothing to do when an announcement comes out: the strategy is adapted to market conditions, and closing a copied position by hand interferes with its basket management. The calendar is mostly useful to understand, afterwards, why the account moved at a given time.